Israel, Ukraine, and Russia–high stakes three-dimensional chess

Three weeks into Russia’s war in Ukraine, Israel finds itself precisely where it doesn’t want to be–with much at stake and pleasing no one. Jerusalem is embedded in a three-dimensional international game of chess with existential risks.

One might expect Israel to be fully aligned with the West against the Russian aggression. Surely Israel, many say, built by victims of war and refugees should be the first to side with the victims of an unprovoked attack by a tyrant, many say.

Israel has been slower and more sparing in its criticisms of Russia and slower and more sparing in its political support of Ukraine. While expressing sympathy with and sending substantial humanitarian support to Ukraine, Israeli leaders remain hesitant to condemn Russia with the same forcefulness as our western allies.

Why? Israel has multiple, sometimes contradictory vital interests at stake, involving the nation’s very identity and strategic interests.

First, Israel has a deep and unique responsibility for the welfare of Jews everywhere. Ukraine has some 200,000, and Russia 500,000 Jews, among the world’s largest communities, eligible for aliyah under Israel’s Law of Return. A position strongly supporting one side might contribute to a sharp rise in violent antisemitism, a phenomenon historically all too common in both Ukraine and Russia.

Second, since the Syrian civil war, Russia has propped up the Assad regime, especially militarily. Meanwhile, Iran has sent its own forces and proxies hoping to establish a permanent presence on Israel’s northern border. Along with Iran’s Hezbollah proxy in Lebanon and control over swaths of northern Iraq, Iran exploits a contiguous land connection all the way to the Mediterranean Sea, including coveted seaports. This Iranian advance has compelled Israel to launch numerous strikes against Iranian targets inside Syria.

Russia, vying with Iran for hegemony inside Syria, has found it expedient–so far–to allow such Israeli attacks. This discreet military cooperation with Moscow has allowed Israel to operate virtually unhindered within Syria’s air space, provided it was acting against Iranian targets only.

There is reasonable concern that were Israel to align against Russia on Ukraine, our freedom of action in Syria would end. Israel can ill-afford a head-on clash with Russia in Syria that restricts its ability to counteract Iranian operations.

Even when it comes to the Jewish oligarchs close to President Putin, Israel treads a thin line: Some also have Israeli citizenship, and are deeply invested in the country economically and philanthropically.

Though not huge numbers, resonant voices in Israel painfully recall that all too many Ukrainians eagerly collaborated with the Nazis, participating in some of the Holocaust’s worst massacres. For some survivors in Israel, separating what happened then with Ukraine of today, is simply a bridge too far. Not helping matters is Prime Minister Zelensky’s inflammatory charge of Russians committing a second Holocaust–the mirror image of Putin calling Zelensky a Nazi.

Amid all these dynamics, Israel has found it hard to take an unequivocal, unnuanced position on the conflict. However, most Israelis have had no qualms about supporting the Ukrainian people. With Ukrainian flags being flown throughout Israel, thousands of Israelis have donated funds as well as clothing, medicine, humanitarian supplies, and a field hospital.

After much deliberation and public pressure, the government is allowing non-Jewish Ukrainian refugees to come to Israel, the largest influx of refugees in any country–other than six of Ukraine’s neighbors. That stream of refugees–of course–is in addition to unlimited entry to Jews.

Despite all these complicating factors and all the attendant criticism Israel’s positions have sparked, Ukraine and Russia have actually looked to Jerusalem to broker a cease-fire. Who would ever have imagined that any Israeli Prime Minister, especially one who leads a party with just six seats in the 120-seat Knesset, would be asked to play mediator in the world’s hottest conflict? This is, after all, still the Israel that so many call an apartheid state and is routinely demonized at the United Nations.

As usual, to borrow a boxing phrase, tiny Israel is competing above its “weight class” in this crisis. Its diplomatic and humanitarian role is outsized. As are the military stakes, and the weight of history–past and current.

Ofer Bavly is the Director General of the JUF Israel Office.