Choosing sides is easy—predicting futures is not

The old joke tells of the Harvard professor of zoology who asks his students to write an essay about the elephant. A British student wrote How to Hunt the Elephant , a French student wrote The Love Life of the Elephant , and a Jewish student wrote “The Elephant and the Jewish Question. ”

As Jews, we often look at the world around us through the very narrow prism of “is it good for the Jews?” Since 1948, the prism has widened somewhat and now we see the world in terms of “Is it good for the Jews… and for Israel?”

Many American voters (and Israeli non-voters) thus tried for months to decide which of the two American presidential candidates was better for the Jews and for Israel. While most American Jews naturally also think about what is good for America and not just for Israel, most Israelis have traditionally cared mostly about a candidate’s position vis-à-vis Israel, writing essays that might be titled The President and the Israeli Question .

The latest presidential race was no different, and maybe more so than usual, given Israel’s present state of war. As Israelis grapple with a challenging security situation and a looming economic crisis, the American race became more interesting than usual with citizens on this side of the ocean asking themselves what is better for us.

Not that Israelis’ opinion matters on this issue, but it was interesting to see how the debate between Israelis on the Trump-Harris race followed, more or less, the divisions along the coalition-opposition line in Israel. Simply put, if you are a supporter of the Netanyahu government, chances are you supported Trump, whereas if you were against the Netanyahu government, you likely supported Harris.

The opinions formed by Israelis relied mainly on two superficial factors: campaign statements and gut feelings. Every time a candidate expressed an opinion in support of Israel’s right to self-defense, thousands of Israelis said, “I told you: he/she is pro-Israel!” And every time a candidate mentioned the suffering of the Palestinians or the need to end the war, the other side jumped up, exclaiming “I told you: he/she is an antisemite/anti-Zionist.”

But the truth of the matter is that it is simply impossible to forecast the policy any president will pursue on Israel based on their campaign pledges or, indeed, their past actions. There are too many moving pieces at play.

Additionally, everyone knows that campaign promises and pledges are cheap. Shimon Peres had a favorite saying about polls and promises: “Like perfume, they are nice to smell–but don’t drink them.”

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, U.S. policy on Israel and the Middle East is always complex and nuanced. It is made up of a myriad of factors of interest-military, economic and even social–and for all U.S. administrations, policy is based on what is good for the States, and rightly so. Their essay might be titled: Israel and the American Question .

Experience shows that presidents who had disagreement with Israeli leaders could nevertheless pursue a policy deemed pro-Israel because it served the U.S. interest, while presidents with a genuine friendship with Israelis nevertheless pursued policies which one could define as “tough love.”

Another factor that will certainly influence U.S.-Israeli relations under the old/new administration will be the advisors and envoys picked by President Trump and the measure of their influence over his decision-making.

Finally, our relations and the way the new administration views and acts towards Israel will depend to a large measure on what Israel does and what policies it pursues. If the president and Congress feel that Israel’s policies align with U.S. national interests, then the relations will flourish.

In short, it is too early to tell. U.S.-Israel relations are strong and remain a true alliance of shared values and interests. Now that the elections are over, it’s time for the two administrations to work together to bring a successful end to our war, bring back our hostages, and advance our shared interests. We still have yet to write the essay: The 2024 US Election and the American-Israeli Question .
Ofer Bavly is a JUF Vice President and the Director General of the JUF Israel Office.