The fifth election

Earlier this month, Israel held elections for the fifth time in just over three years. We voted, hoping to bring an end to a long period of political deadlock. Benjamin Netanyahu, after failing four consecutive times to form a stable coalition, poised to form a government backed by 64 Members of Knesset (out of 120) with the two Haredi parties (Shas and Torah Judaism) as well as the far right-wing Religious Zionism party.

The biggest winner is the Religious Zionism party, a coalition of three parties that agreed, at Netanyahu’s insistence, to run jointly. This unified approach avoided “wasting” votes cast for any of three parties that might not pass the threshold of 3.25% on their own. The three-party coalition surged from six seats in the previous Knesset to 14. Their success can be attributed to an uptick in internal violence, a rise in Palestinian terrorist attacks, and a growing sense of lawlessness in the Negev, all exacerbated by a police force not keeping people safe.

The party’s rhetoric focusing on using force to restore law and order resonated, especially among those between the ages of 18 and 25. Other elements in the party’s platform include views widely considered racist, homophobic, and misogynistic. With 14 seats in the Knesset, this party clearly made headway with 12% of voters.

The surge in support for the Religious Zionism party, along with an increase in votes for the two ultra-Orthodox (haredi) parties, gave Netanyahu a larger, seemingly more stable majority than in the previous four rounds of elections.

On the losing side is Yemina, the right-wing party previously led by (now) former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett-which dropped from six seats to zero; their voters punished them for forming a government with left-wing and Arab parties. Those voters primarily switched to the Religious Zionism party.

Yemina– a party to the right of Likud, populated mostly by modern Orthodox members identifying with the settler movement– broke away from the Netanyahu bloc, vowing not to join the leader, who had failed to form a coalition and was undergoing a trial. When Bennett’s rainbow coalition-and with it the Knesset-dissolved, the backlash from right-wing voters was palpable, with Bennet branded a traitor.

Bennett’s successor at Yemina– Ayelet Shaked– seeing the party’s voters turn against her, repented for having repudiated Netanyahu. For Yemina voters, it was too little, too late: they attacked her viciously, vowing not to vote for her. She and her party failed to pass the threshold in the Knesset; thus Bennet’s party, in power until two months ago, is effectively no more. While Bennett might contemplate a return to politics, Shaked seems to have no political future.

Meretz is another major loser of the election. After serving in government for the first time in years, the left-wing party did not make it past the Knesset threshold for the first time in its history. Lapid tried to convince Meretz and Labor to run in a joint list, but the two parties refused. Meretz failed to make it into Knesset and Labor barely made it with only four seats-its poorest showing since 1948.

It will now be Netanyahu’s task to cobble together coalition agreements between the religious and right-wing parties, each of whom will have budgetary demands as well as requests for influential cabinet positions. Netanyahu will be reluctant to give the Religious Zionism party the central portfolios they demand (including Justice and Internal Security) and will offer them other positions. The haredi parties will likely demand control of the Ministry of the Interior, the Knesset Finance Committee, and more. They will also demand laws be passed or canceled, as benefits their constituent.

Under pressure from his coalition partners, Netanyahu will need to walk a fine line between request for more conservative and religion-oriented legislation and his natural propensity toward more moderate policies, especially keeping in mind the need to preserve and improve Israel’s relations with Europe, the U.S., and the Arab world.

Ofer Bavly is the Director General of the JUF Israel Office.